Isaac still somewhat disorganized

Just got up and it is looking a little better now.The models seem to be trending more east with every run.The stronger it gets the more likely it is to head east.I will keep sunday open as far as putting up shutters :(


Crazy for Crotons said:
The track is slowly shifting east. Hopefully, this trend will continue.
Click to expand...
 
Mike, I'm not sure on what forcast you saw but,just this morning, south Florida is in the bullseye! YES...lets keep our fingers crossed that it shifts one way or the other.
 
We are directly in the middle of the cone but that may not be a bad thing.See below.Monday is either going to be a bad day or a terrible day.We are almost certain to get at least tropical storm force winds.Certainly enough winds to shred my nice big leafed varieties :(
I remember the dislocation that Wilma caused it was only a borderllne Cat 1-2 when it passed thru.


The table contains the average track forecast errors organized by decade, for all the forecast periods, and converted from nautical miles into miles.


Average NHC Atlantic Track Forecast Errors (mi)
Tropical Storms and Hurricanes



In the 1970s, the 3-day hurricane track forecast was off by an average of 442 miles. By the close of the first decade of the 2000s, the same 3-day track forecast error had been cut in half and then some, averaging only 177 miles. Comparing the 3-day forecast from the 1970s with that of today, dramatic scientific advancements can be seen over the last 30-40 years.
 
The only thing that will spare the state is if the Bermuda High recedes eastward, allowing the storm to make a northerly turn sooner. If the high sits where it is now or noses westward, we're in for a rough stretch.
 
Well.......it's 6:00pm now and I'm sitting here extreamly happy!!! I received 1" of rain yesterday and so far another 3" today. Wind? I can't speak for anyone else, but this storm didn't have the "punch" that they were predicting,IMO. I had very little wind today, maybe 5 ocassional gust of wind, which not even one Bismarckia dead leaf hanging from my palms blew off! So unless things pick up tonight sometime, this storm was not much of anything. And thank God!
 
Almost 5" rain yesterday & we're up to 4.4" as of 11:00am today, with more on the way. A few 35 mph wind gusts. The only damage was a few broken bamboos. I feel fortunate as it was mainly a rain event for us.
 
Hurricane Betsy brushed by our coast then headed north. Over night she did the loop-de-loop and came back and hit South Florida.

The system formerly known as Isaac traveled quite far inland. Not staying over water - it is very odd to have a system re-emerge after going so far inland and remain viable. Very strange how it doubled back nearly a week later. :rolleyes:

I hope Bud (Crotons.net) doesn't get any of this system this weekend. I am sure his property is still saturated.
 
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